MMOEXP-The Mets’ Virtual Season in MLB The Show 25

[PaleyShelie]

Every baseball season begins with hope, numbers, and projections. In MLB The Show 25, that optimism is rendered in digital form through the March to October mode, where players can take any franchise through the highs and lows of MLB The Show 25 Stubs a simulated season. The game's internal logic—based on player ratings, depth charts, and statistical projections—decides which teams are true contenders. For 2025, The Show listed seven Tier One “favorites” expected to reach October baseball with win totals of 91 or higher: the Dodgers, Phillies, Braves, Mets, Rangers, Yankees, and Orioles.




But baseball, even when simulated, has a sense of humor. Out of those seven elite squads, only three managed to make the postseason. The other four—including one of the game's most hyped lineups, the New York Mets—completely collapsed. And not just in disappointing fashion, but in a way that exposed how unpredictable MLB The Show 25's simulation engine can be when it comes to chemistry, streaks, and player volatility.




The Mets: Projected Juggernaut, Simulated Implosion




Heading into MLB The Show 25's launch, the Mets were loaded. The game's default rosters gave them one of the most balanced lineups in the National League: a top-heavy rotation featuring Kodai Senga and José Quintana, offensive firepower from Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor, and a bullpen anchored by Edwin Díaz, who remains one of the highest-rated closers in the game.




On paper, the Mets were a near-lock for October. In most pre-season projections, their simulated win total hovered around 92-94, easily securing them the second Wild Card or even the NL East crown if the Braves stumbled. Yet in countless player simulations and community runs, the Mets not only missed the postseason—they did so by double-digit games.




In an analysis of 100 March to October simulations conducted by multiple online players and Reddit communities, the Mets made the playoffs only 37% of the time. More shockingly, they averaged just 82 wins per season, putting them squarely in “competitive but not dangerous” territory.




Where It All Falls Apart




So what causes this recurring collapse? It's a combination of factors unique to MLB The Show's simulation logic and how the game balances team chemistry, depth, and player regression.




1. Streakiness and Momentum Penalties

In March to October, team momentum plays a massive role in determining wins and losses. If a team slumps in mid-May or late June, the algorithm exaggerates that losing streak unless a human player intervenes. The Mets, unfortunately, are coded with a streak-prone offense—heavy reliance on power hitters like Alonso, Alvarez, and Marte means long stretches of feast or famine. When the simulated dice roll goes cold, their run production evaporates for weeks.




2. The Middle-Inning Meltdown

Pitching is another weak spot in their simulations. Kodai Senga performs admirably in most runs, but behind him, the back end of the rotation—often Quintana, Megill, and Peterson—gets torched by opposing lineups. Even with Díaz shutting the door in the ninth, the AI-controlled bullpen usage often leaves him idle in close games that swing out of control in the seventh or eighth. This “AI bullpen mismanagement” remains one of the most criticized aspects of The Show's franchise simulation engine.




3. Defensive Metrics and Errors

Despite decent defensive ratings, the Mets often underperform in the field during sims. The AI values range and reaction slightly differently than human players would, meaning someone like Lindor—elite in manual play—doesn't always translate to elite simulated defense. The Mets rank near the bottom in simulated defensive efficiency, giving up an average of 15-20 more unearned runs per season than their Tier One counterparts.




4. Injury Frequency

Injury settings are another unpredictable variable. With default injury sliders, the Mets are one of the most injury-prone rosters in the game. Starters like Marte, Nimmo, and Senga miss weeks at a time, and depth replacements rarely hold the line. Once key hitters go down, the simulation rarely recovers, compounding losing streaks.




Comparing the Other Tier One Misses




The Mets weren't alone in their simulated downfall. The Yankees, Rangers, and Phillies all missed the playoffs in a majority of community runs as well.




Yankees: Often suffer from lineup imbalance. Judge remains unstoppable, but Stanton's regression and inconsistent contact rates lead to low team batting averages.




Rangers: Pitching depth falters after Eovaldi and Scherzer. The offense keeps them competitive, but their bullpen collapses frequently in late innings.




Phillies: Much like the Mets, they rely too heavily on streaky power bats. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber can't carry a lineup when both slump simultaneously.




Despite these struggles, none of the other Tier One teams fall as dramatically as the Mets. The Rangers and Phillies usually hover around 85-88 wins—just shy of a playoff spot—while the Mets occasionally plunge below .500 entirely.




When the Simulation Works in Their Favor




To be fair, when things click, the Mets can dominate a simulated season. In roughly one out of every three runs, their offense ignites, producing some of the most explosive team stats in the league. Alonso leads the NL in home runs, Lindor contends for MVP, and Díaz racks up 45+ saves. In those rare perfect storms, the Mets not only make the playoffs but can go deep—reaching the NLCS or even the World Series in about 12% of full simulations.




These outlier runs highlight how volatile MLB The Show 25's engine can be. The margin between a 94-win division champ and an 80-win disappointment can hinge on a single injury or a badly simulated losing streak in July.




The Real-World Irony




Ironically, MLB The Show 25's Mets simulation mirrors the unpredictability of their real-life counterparts. A team loaded with talent, expectations, and big contracts, yet always one bad stretch away from falling out of contention. It's almost poetic that even a digital algorithm can't shake the “Mets curse.”




Real-world data from late 2025 reinforces the contrast: the Braves and Orioles—two other Tier One favorites—fulfilled their expected dominance, while the Mets once again found themselves on the outside looking in. Whether by fate or flawed roster balance, both reality and simulation agree on one thing: the Mets can't seem to get out of their own way.




What It Means for Players




For fans playing March to October or Franchise mode, this data provides valuable insights. If you choose the Mets, you're signing up for a rollercoaster of emotional highs and statistical lows. To increase playoff odds, players should:




Manually manage bullpen roles to ensure Díaz appears in more high-leverage situations.




Add rotation depth by trading for consistent mid-tier arms early in the season.




Adjust injury frequency sliders to reduce chaos from long-term absences.




Boost contact ratings with training focus to balance their feast-or-famine offense.




These small changes can push a typical 82-win sim toward the 90-win threshold—just enough to sneak into October.




Final Thoughts




In the grand scheme of MLB The Show 25, the Mets' simulated fate serves as both a cautionary tale and a fascinating case study in how sports games mirror the sport's inherent chaos. Baseball has always been unpredictable, and The Show captures that truth better than any other sports simulation.







The Mets were meant to be one of the elite seven—a digital dynasty in the making. Instead, they've become the face of underachievement in MLB The Show 25's simulated universe. Whether you find that infuriating or poetic depends on your perspective. But one thing is clear: in both real and virtual baseball, no lead, no projection, and MLB Stubs for sale no win total is ever guaranteed—especially when it comes to the New York Mets.